Independent research firm
Research on consequential change and capital outcomes.
Open Variable Research examines how changes in policy, technology, industry, and capital markets move through cash flows, balance sheets, and market expectations.
Market signal / upstream versus downstream
The same refining disruption produced opposite export signals.
Record June seaborne flow as falling refinery runs pushed crude outward.
July 1-8 tracking, versus a normal range of roughly 700-800k bpd.
More crude leaving the system did not mean more usable fuel. The conversion layer was the variable under stress.
Latest research
View all research ->Macro, Policy & Geopolitics
Crude Is the Headline. Diesel Is the Shortage.
Research on why crude can look abundant while diesel tightens, and which conversion layers matter if refinery damage and export restrictions persist.
6-page PDF / English · $390 individual access
Technology & Industrial Systems
The Gap Between Committed and Energized
A 16-page Open Variable Research diligence brief for separating announced AI-infrastructure megawatts from capacity that can be energized by a financeable date.
16-page PDF / English · $390 individual access
Commodities & Real Assets
The Sorting Year
A diligence brief from Open Variable Research for reading the gap between reported commercial-real-estate recovery and credit stress hidden beneath averages.
11-page PDF / English · $390 individual access
Research areas
Explore coverage ->Area 01
Macro, Policy & Geopolitics
How policy, conflict, labor, inflation, and rates change economic behavior and market expectations.
Area 02
Technology & Industrial Systems
How technology adoption changes labor, production capacity, infrastructure, and industrial organization.
Area 03
Commodities & Real Assets
How physical supply, conversion, logistics, land, and credit conditions reach prices and cash flows.
Area 04
Capital Markets & Financial Structure
How financing, balance sheets, market structure, and positioning alter the path from evidence to repricing.
Evidence and accountability
The conclusion is only part of the record.
Research discloses its author, evidence cutoff, revision state, verification signals, and withdrawal conditions.
Author accountability
Julian Liu
Founder and lead analyst, responsible for published judgments, revisions, and corrections under the Open Variable Research name.
View author profileResearch access
Research updates and institutional inquiry.
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