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Independent research & intelligence
OPEN VARIABLE

Evidence-First Signal Intelligence

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OPEN VARIABLE

Glossary

Terms used in the evidence record.

Observation

A fact recorded with a source, unit, scope and time period. An issuer’s statement is an observation of what the issuer reported, unless independently established.

Estimate

A measured or modelled approximation of an existing or past quantity. Preserve the source’s uncertainty and revision status.

Projection

A future value conditional on a model or set of assumptions. It is not an outcome that has already occurred.

Inference

An explanation or conclusion drawn from observations. The text should make the reasoning and alternative explanations inspectable.

Signal

A bounded judgment with evidence, counterevidence and a test that could change its state. A Research hypothesis is an inquiry defined for investigation; it does not imply continuous tracking.

Evidence cutoff

The latest date of the evidence used in a particular assessment. It differs from the article’s publication date and the period a statistic measures.