Data note / AI & Compute / Energy & Infrastructure
485 TWh to 950 TWh: an outlook, not a delivery ledger
The IEA’s 2026 data-centre projection needs both its baseline and its uncertainty label.
Cite this work
OPEN VARIABLE. 485 TWh to 950 TWh: an outlook, not a delivery ledger. 2026-09-07. Updated 2026-09-08. https://www.openvariable.com/research/iea-demand-outlook
Read the categories first
The IEA estimates global data-centre electricity consumption at 485 TWh in 2025 and projects about 950 TWh in 2030. The later value is a projection. Neither value is a project-level schedule. International Energy Agency ↗
What to carry into a model
A useful dataset preserves the publication vintage, geography, unit and estimate-versus-projection distinction alongside the number. When an outlook changes, retain the old value and explain whether the difference arose from a new baseline, changed assumptions or a changed forecast. Silently replacing a chart can erase precisely the information a reader needs to evaluate the judgment.
Sources
- Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary
Institutional research / forecast. Global estimates and scenarios; cannot establish an individual project delivery date.